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12.05.2024 Kazanma Hırsı ve Kumarbaz Yanılgısı 🤑💰 | Monte Carlo Yanılgısı


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12.05.2024

Hi, on this video we will describe the gambler's fallacy, which is a statistical logic error that we repeat very often in our lives. Let's start! Gambler's Fallacy is a cognitive prejudice that makes us believe that an event will occur less frequently in the near future after it occurs frequently in the present. In the same way, if something rarely happens now, it also raises the possibility that it will occur more frequently in the future. According to statistics, the possibility of head and tails is only near to %50 in the long run, not only after just a few try. We are talking about at least thousands of tries.

So it is not so common to catch a balance close to perfection in just 10 shots and it is quite normal to have big differences in the starting phase. When calculating the probabilities we have to build the associations correctly and pay attention to the independent events. Our brain is very eager to relate events, but unfortunately each throw is independent from the previous one. At the heart of the Gambler Fallacy is the fact that our brain is not expert in understanding independent events. You already know a lot of the stuff I mentioned, but the Gambler Fallacy goes far beyond these concepts. In every area of ​​our life we ​​often encounter this misconception.

A father expects a boy to be born after 3 daughters, right? Sorry, these are independent events. You are reviewing loan applications in the bank and you approve 8 applications in a row, you are starting to think about 9th application I am being too gentle? Because of the Gambler's Fallacy you are throwing away the last application although it is perfectly fine. 9 very good applications may have come in succession. The gambler fallacy has a great example in history. In 1913, a ball of a roulette table in the Monte Carlo casino hit 26 times to the black consecutively. The probability of this is approximately 1 in 136 million.

Customers who see black coming up consecutively. start betting on red, but they kept losing. until the 27th throw.. Have you heard the "The house always wins" statement?. It is only true in the long term.. In the short run everything. is uncertain.. We have to keep our. statistical knowledge fresh in order to. understand some things in a healthy way in life.

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